Iran Nukes Israel – Some Thoughts

Lately when thinking about Iran I can’t help but recall the classic dark comedy Dr. Strangelove, a fictional account about nuclear war with the former Soviet Union– the movie ends when a B-52 bomber pilot played by Slim Pickens is sent aloft on a nuclear bombing run to take out Moscow. Pickens gets to the drop zone, presses the bomb release button, but a glitch occurs and he has to head back to the bomb bay to manually release the nuke. But the only way to do that is to physically hop on the bomb and hit the release lever, which of course means he’s goin’ down with the monster! That’s one dedicated pilot! So there it is- Ol’ Slim plunging down to earth straddling the bomb like a bronco, swinging his cowboy hat in the air–“Yeee Haaaa-ing!” all the way to the ground! Great scene!

Now for not so great scene ¬– Imagine Iran finally has “the bomb” and those wacky Mullahs finally decide to take care of the “Zionists”, and launch a nuclear missile or multiple missiles toward Israel. Now what? With all the talk lately about weapons inspectors and treaties and sanctions and uranium enrichment, the one thing nobody in the media seems to be talking about is what happens if Iran should actually lob a nuclear missile toward Israel.

Well, lately I’ve been “Mullahing” that over, and there’s a lot and I mean A LOT to “mull” about. So let’s mull, shall we?

So Iran does the thinkable unthinkable and launches its “Zion buster” - now what?
It’s a given that the moment a missile departs its Iranian bunker, Israel and the U.S. will know about it – one must assume that by now Iran has Israeli intelligence’s undivided attention. Mossad being one of the world’s best intelligence agencies surely has a lot of assets focused in and around Iran as well as intense satellite observation so the moment the missile’s trajectory is figured out, which should take about a minute, immediate action will be taken. You have to imagine that before the missile even gets over its border the Israelis will launch one or more of their own “turban busters” which means that now there will be at least two nuclear strikes. So the minute a missile departs its bunker and sees it’s shadow there will be a lot more than six more weeks of winter to worry about. Nuclear winter is more like it.

What will be bombed? I’m going to assume that Iran won’t want to take out Jerusalem – the Dome of the Rock lying in a heap of radioactive rubble won’t play well to the rest of the Arab world, so I think the Iranians will want to take out a more strategic target – Tel Aviv. Nuking the capital and “decapitating” Israel’s government will play well in the Arab world – as well as France and Russia.

Israel, being forced to play nuclear ping–pong with Iran, will not be content with a tit-for-tat game. The question is, how many volleys will there be. You know that the Israelis already have a comprehensive target list. They’re going to want take out as many of Iran’s nuclear missile sites and processing facilities as they can, as well as military bases, information, and power centers. And for the added exclamation point Tehran will be whacked. Israel, having been handed the nuclear defense cover it needs, and with nothing left to lose, might well be tempted to “FedEx” a few more radiation gifts to Syria, and maybe a few into Saudi Arabia for good measure– maybe. In any case Israel will have the excuse it needs to “take care of business.”

Another concern is the main lynchpin which precipitated this nightmare – the Palestinians. Besides Israel, the people who should worry most about Iran are, oddly enough, Palestinians. There are over a million Palestinians who live in multiple refugee camps in and around Israel.

It’s a sure bet that a multitude of Palestinians will meet the same fate as the Jews. Are you listening Hamas? Hezbollah? Because the winds in the Middle East generally blow from west to east (just like here) you can add Jordan’s King Abdullah to the “annoyed” list. And depending on those winds and the size of the blast it’s a good bet that nuclear snowflakes will be wafting down from the skies over Jordan, and the recently beleaguered Iraq. With a large enough blast and strong enough wind Iranians themselves might enjoy some of their own fallout–which would conceivably contaminate the food and water supplies, which will cause more misery–not to mention a radiation crater that was once Tehran.

It won’t take long for the missiles to hit their targets -as there’s only about a 1,500 mile gap between the two nations about ten minutes should do it. After that - the whole world will know and soon after that, world economies could very well collapse – oil will go up to – well… any number you can think of - one hundred, two hundred dollars per barrel - keep going because you’ll need to take out a bank loan to fill your car! You can also kiss goodbye any stocks or 401K accounts you might own because world stock markets will crater as fast as the nuclear craters are created! This in turn will cause the price of everything to skyrocket. Imagine millions of people mobbing stores buying as much as possible before food prices “nuclearize” themselves! The word “UGLY” lies on the tip of my nasty adjective iceberg.

In the end, the Arab world will have achieved a pyrrhic victory. Though they won’t see it that way – I’m sure there are likely to be plenty of “leftover” radicals celebrating “the end of the Zionist entity!” With no more Israel to rail against, hundreds of thousands of their own dead, and very few safe places to live (in addition to Israel, most of their lands, will be luxuriating in a nice warm nuclear soap bath.) – What will they do?

Not having to worry about diplomacy anymore, any real allies the Arabs had before will
be a bit grumpy about providing them with any support. A few countries like Russia and China might very well take advantage of the end of Tehran, and in the chaos try to take control of any remaining Iranian oil fields! I’m betting that with the exception of North Korea, any remaining Arabs will have to toss a camel a pretty long distance to find an Ally.

If you would like a reliable warning sign of this impending doom I’ll give you one, one that would be difficult for a Vegas odds maker to keep in Vegas. The one thing those weaselly Mullahs know is this–if they should attempt to remove the “Zionist Occupiers”, they have to know that the favor will be returned. Meaning that much of Iran is going to become a glittering rockin’ and rollin’ disco ball of radioactive light!

Knowing that – here’s your sign – Watch the Mullahs. That’s it! When all those Mullahs decide to take a magic carpet ride for a sunbathing vacation in Indonesia, that’s your two minute warning–it’s time to start worrying!

After the nuclear shuttlecocks are launched–the one thing I know for sure is this–U.S. politicians will try as hard as they can to capitalize on the charred corpses in the desert. Democrats will blame Republicans, Republicans will blame Democrats. There will be a lot of banter about anti-Semitism. The media will blame all except itself. The U.N. will convene–there will be lots of speeches and yelling and finger pointing and enough resolutions to fill an encyclopedia. In the end, bloviating diplomats and politicians will outgas in unison “never again!” to anyone who will listen. And nothing of any real substance will be accomplished. Which means, politically, nothing will change.

Now to leave you with a bit of a silver lining: eventually world economies will come back, though nothing will be quite the same – the price of gas will eventually stabilize, but still cost over a hundred dollars a barrel. But, the one good thing that might come out of this nightmare will be that the U.S. Government might finally create a Manhattan project or provide major funding to private companies or people, to produce new forms of transportation fuel.

If we could create a super cheap renewable energy resource to run a car engine, that isn’t oil based, then we can have an economy that is un-reliant upon events in the Middle East. And if it turns out to be really cheap to produce, you’ll see an economic boom that could just about wipe out poverty in this country.

This will have another beneficial effect – suddenly Arab nations that have had single product economies (OIL)- which, are controlled by a few people keeping themselves wealthy and the rest of their populations poor, will find themselves with a “no product” economy. The Middle Eastern Arab world, if it is to survive at all, will be forced to produce a variety of “widgets”, which means they’ll need to have an educated populace to produce all those different widgets, which in turn will mean there will be other things to occupy their lives besides the will of Allah and the end of Israel. And wouldn’t that be nice!

Getting back to Dr. Strangelove and that scene –When thinking about Iran with nuclear capabilities–my mind replaces Ol’ Slim with some generic Mullah (I don’t know any Mullahs personally) straddling that nuclear bomb, and instead of a cowboy hat he’s batting the bomb with his turban yelling “Allah Ackbarrrr!”– as he plunges into Tel Aviv. – Funny visual…then again, not.